Stephen Kotkin — One of the foremost historians of 20th and 21st century Russia and Eastern Europe, author of the definitive multi-volume biography of Stalin. A scholar at Princeton (moving to Stanford) known for his theory of Russia's 'perpetual geopolitics.'
The gist
Stephen Kotkin returns to draw out the echoes between Stalin and Putin, arguing both are trapped by Russia's centuries-old dilemma: grand imperial ambition paired with chronic weakness relative to the West. He directly rebuts Oliver Stone and John Mearsheimer, insisting the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was not forced by NATO expansion but is one more strategic choice rooted in resentment and a quest to weaken the West. He explains why Russia's war has gone badly, why Zelenskyy and Ukrainian resistance shocked everyone, and why the supposedly multipolar world is in fact still Western-dominated. He closes on nuclear risk, China's strategic blunder in backing Putin, the unpredictability of history, and a reflection on living a purposeful life.
Big reveals
- Kotkin uses a stark rape analogy to reject the claim that NATO expansion forced Putin's invasion, calling it victim-blaming.
- He argues there is no innate Russian cultural tendency toward aggression; each invasion is a deliberate strategic choice.
- He frames Ukraine being run by a TV production company as exactly what you want in an information war, praising Zelenskyy.
- Kotkin admits he, Putin, the Biden administration, and the EU were all surprised by Ukraine's battlefield success.
- Contrarian take: Putin may be rationally calculating he can outlast the West, holding more territory and a stranglehold on Ukraine's economy.
- He reveals Russia's strategic nukes use a 'dual key' system, so Putin alone cannot launch them.
- Kotkin argues Xi Jinping destroyed China's grand strategy by backing Putin, driving Europe and the US together.
- He speculates Navalny is kept alive because the regime sees him as a 'get out of jail card' to lift sanctions.
Things worth remembering
- Mao killed more people than Stalin largely because he had more people to kill, having watched Stalin's famines firsthand.
- Western (IMF and other) money sent to post-Soviet Russia, tens of billions, simply disappeared.
- The Sochi Olympics officially cost about $50 billion yet left almost no enduring infrastructure.
- The 'multipolar world' is empirically false; no major global institution is run by non-Western powers.
- PJ O'Rourke quip: every US embassy abroad has a protest outside and the longest visa line you've ever seen.
- Zelenskyy's approval fell from 73% at election to about 25% before the war, then surged past 90%.
- A tactical nuke fired at Ukraine would blow fallout back onto Russia, since the Kremlin is only about 600 miles away.
- At 69-70, Putin has already reached Russian male life expectancy but has far better doctors.
- The FSO praetorian guard is the only organization with real access to Putin, and shows no defections.
- Officials Zoom with Putin into rooms in Sochi, Valdai, and near Moscow deliberately made to look identical so they don't know his location.
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Stalin (three-volume biography)
Stephen Kotkin
“he has written what is widely considered to be the definitive biography of stalin in three volumes two of which have been published” — Lex Fridman 00:00:00Find it on Amazon
memoir on the Soviet collapse (Likholetye)
Nikolai Leonov
“he has the best memoir on the soviet collapse which is known in russian as yeah you will understand that” — Stephen Kotkin 00:28:07Find it on Amazon