Global Forecaster: The Brutal 2026 Shift (And The Crisis They Can’t Stop)

Bremmer walks Steven Bartlett through his firm's 2026 Top Risks report, arguing the United States itself has become the single biggest driver of global geopolitical uncertainty. He details how Trump's military gambits in Venezuela and Iran unfolded, why the Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz is likely to end in a messy compromise, and how China is quietly winning the long game on critical minerals, EVs, batteries and AI. The conversation then turns to AI as a systemic risk, including an Anthropic model deemed too dangerous to release, mounting public anger over data centers and job loss, and the rise of tech CEOs as the new global power brokers. Bremmer closes on a cautiously optimistic note, proposing US-China AI arms control, an 'AI stability board,' and funding to give everyone access to the technology.

• Bremmer flatly predicts 'Trump will fail,' citing policy incompetence and big midterm losses ahead in November.
  00:06:54
• Describes a (hypothetical scenario) US operation that captured Maduro and jailed him in Brooklyn as setting up Trump's overconfidence on Iran.
  00:13:35
• Says Trump has 'a glass jaw' and can't absorb economic pain the way unelected regimes like China and Iran can.
  00:38:41
• Argues the biggest danger to the United States is not China but 'America getting in its own way.'
  00:57:50
• Explains an Anthropic AI model so powerful at finding software vulnerabilities it couldn't be released without posing a systemic global risk.
  01:01:59
• Claims JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon treated the AI model threat as a 'five alarm fire' prompting an urgent meeting of bank CEOs.
  01:03:31
• Reveals companies paying Indian workers to wear head cameras to train the AI that will replace them.
  01:06:40
• Proposes three governance fixes: US-China AI arms control, an AI stability board, and global funding for AI access.
  01:23:44

• China has spent decades cornering critical minerals and rare earths, not just mining them but controlling reprocessing.
  00:05:14
• A 'G-Zero' world means no G7 or G20 leadership, where the powerful set the rules and the weak must accept them.
  00:08:21
• Two new regional blocs are forming: UAE-Israel-US-India versus a Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey-Egypt 'defense quad.'
  00:33:28
• Kharg Island, about half the size of Manhattan, handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports and could be taken with 12,000-15,000 troops.
  00:42:17
• The US is the world's leading oil and natural-gas producer, while red-state Texas leads the nation in renewable energy output.
  00:53:42
• Bremmer's 2023 TED talk argued the next global superpower isn't a country but technology companies writing their own rules.
  01:00:24
• A claim that AI is now less popular than ICE among Americans, who increasingly resent corporations getting richer from it.
  01:08:42
• Bayard Institute research found e-commerce stores can lift conversion by 35% just by making checkout easier; ~70% of carts are abandoned.
  01:21:42
• Bremmer notes US-Soviet arms control talks only began after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis nearly destroyed the world.
  01:23:44
• Bremmer says he fears not artificial general intelligence but 'human beings becoming more computer-like' through their phones.
  01:29:28

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